THE IMPACT OF HURRICANES ON HOUSING PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM US COASTAL CITIES - Research Dept. working paper 1009, Nov 2010 - Dallas Fed

نویسندگان

  • ANTHONY MURPHY
  • ERIC STROBL
  • Anthony Murphy
  • Eric Strobl
چکیده

We investigate the effect of hurricane strikes on housing prices in US coastal cities. To this end, we construct a new index of hurricane destruction which varies over time and space. Using this index and an annual, two equation, dynamic equilibrium correction panel model with area and time fixed effects, we model the effects of hurricanes on real house prices and real incomes. In our model hurricanes have a direct effect on house prices and an indirect effect via a fall in local incomes. Our results show that the typical hurricane strike raise real house prices for a number of years, with a maximum effect of between 3 to 4% three years after occurrence. There is also a small negative effect on real incomes. These results are stable across models and sub-samples. JEL Classification: Q56, R20

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تاریخ انتشار 2010